Behind the Numbers of Douglas vs. Soro

SHOBOX 200 WEIGH IN-8630-2

The last time most U.S. viewers saw Antoine Douglas he was impressively outpointing fellow unbeaten Marquis Davis over eight rounds. The question at the time was “when will we see him again?” The answer: Headlining the 200th episode of “ShoBox: The New Generation” Friday night.

The ShoBox franchise has always been about challenging up-and-coming prospects to take the next step up the ladder and that prime directive will be fulfilled here as the 14-0 (9 KOs) Douglas will fight his best opponent to date. Frenchman Michel Soro (23-1, 13 KOs) lost his only fight against then-WBO junior middleweight titlist Zaurbek Baysangurov in May 2012 and has since rolled off five wins against foes with a combined .714 winning percentage. He holds a 139-46 lead in professional rounds, including a 13-3 edge in fights lasting more than five rounds. Soro will be fighting on U.S. soil for the first time after fighting all his bouts either in France (23 victories) and Ukraine (one loss) and he hopes to break the road jinx against Douglas.

Douglas, who has fought past six rounds only once, will be engaging in his second scheduled 10-rounder and it will almost certainly last longer than his first against Italian veteran Lucas Messi, which ended after two rounds.

What can fight fans expect when Antoine Douglas and Michel Soro step into the ring? Check out the SHOSTATS® historical comparison report for both fighters calculated from Douglas’ past five fights and Soro’s past two fights.

ShoStats_DouglasSoro

The fusion of overall activity and power accuracy has been a staple of Douglas’ career thus far:
4/4/14 KO 2 Luca Messi — 98.7 punches per round, 48% power
12/4/13 KO 3 Colby Courter — 80 punches per round, 36% power
6/14/13 KO 3 Ibahiem King — 75.7 punches per round, 46% power
5/10/13 KO 1 Coy Witt — 47 punches and 83% power accuracy in 96 seconds
3/29/13 W 4 John Worthy — 70.2 punches per round, 46% power
1/25/13 W 4 Emmanuel Medina — 102.8 punches per round, 40% power
(Douglas landed 50% of his power shots in his last 5 fights)

PREDICTION: The Carslaw fight showed that if left to his own devices Soro would prefer a slow-paced fight that allows him time to think and execute. Douglas, who likes to fight hard every second of every round, won’t give him that. If he’s not sucked in by Soro’s ring craft, he should pound out a decisive victory, probably by TKO.

“Guerrero vs. Kamegai” Breaks Records for CompuBox Punch Data

Robert Guerrero vs Yoshihiro KamegaiSHOSTATS® provided by CompuBox, Inc.

  • Guerrero (484) and Kamegai (293) combined to land 777 total punches (65 per round- nearly double the wgt. class avg.) and the most combined landed punches in a 2014 fight tracked by CompuBox
  • Guerrero (1082) and Kamegai (831) combined to throw 1913 total punches (159 per round- 50 more than the wgt. class avg. and the most combined thrown punches in a 2014 fight tracked by CompuBox
  • Guerrero (411) and Kamegai (278) combined to land 689 power punches (57 per round- more than double the wgt. class avg. and the most combined landed power punches in a 2014 fight tracked by CompuBox
  • Guerrero ( 764) and Kamegai (741) combined to throw 1505 power punches (125 per round- nearly double the wgt. class avg. and the most combined thrown power punches in a 2014 fight tracked by CompuBox
  • 89% of Guerrero and Kamegai’s landed punches were power shots. CompuBox avg.: 68%
  • Guerrero’s 484 landed total punches (40 per round- more than double wgt. class avg.)- the most in a 2014 fight tracked by CompuBox
  • Guerrrero’s 411 landed power punches (34 per round- more than double wgt. class avg.)- the most in a 2014 fight tracked by CompuBox
  • Kamegai’s 278 landed power punches (23 per round, nearly double the wgt. class avg.) is #3 for all 2014 fights tracked by CompuBox

Behind the Numbers of Alexander vs. Soto Karass

Alexander and Soto Karass

CompuBox / SHOSTATS® Analysis
One redeeming quality about boxing is that athletes are literally one punch away from resuscitating their stars following a defeat. On Saturday, former two-division titlist Devon Alexander and blood-and-guts Mexican veteran Jesus Soto-Karass — coming off losses to Shawn Porter and Keith Thurman respectively — will face each other for the right to continue on the top-level circuit. The loser, especially if it’s Soto-Karass, will be forced to rethink his place in the sport. Therefore, even though a title is not on the line, the stakes couldn’t be much higher.

Statistical factors that may determine the outcome include: Continue reading

Behind the Numbers of Matthysse vs. Molina

005 Hopkins and Shumenov IMG_4837Photo: Esther Lin / SHOWTIME

Many observers believed last September 14 would see the coronation of a superstar at the expense of an undefeated champion. No, it wasn’t Saul Alvarez against Floyd Mayweather, but rather Lucas Matthysse vs. Danny Garcia. But Garcia used a late-round surge to spoil Matthysse’s party and certify himself as “the man” at 140.

Seven months later, Matthysse begins the road back against a man who knows all about comebacks in John Molina. The Californian with the blue-collar sensibilities pulled off two shocking late-round rallies against Hank Lundy and Mickey Bey and though he has a modest 3-2 record in his last five fights one can never, ever count him out until the final bell.

What can fight fans expect when Lucas Matthysse and John Molina step into the ring tonight? Check out the SHOSTATS® historical comparison report for both fighters calculated from Matthysse’s last 4 fights, and Molina’s last 3 fights.

ShoStats_MatthysseMolina

Prediction: Given their styles and huge power, this will be a fun fight to watch. It may take two or three rounds to warm up but once it does it will explode into a mighty bonfire. Matthysse’s last 4 opponents landed 40% of their power shots, while Molina’s last 4 opponents landed 47% of their power shots. Matthysse’s hands are faster and strike with a bit more power but Molina will keep the faith for as long as he can. In the end, however, Matthysse will emerge with the “W,” and probably the “KO” too.

Behind the Numbers of Hopkins vs. Shumenov

005 Hopkins and Shumenov IMG_4837Photo: Tom Casino / SHOWTIME

Beibut Shumenov has fought 101 pro rounds, far less than Bernard Hopkins who has fought 301 rounds just in world title fights. However, those aren’t the only numbers to consider.

SHOSTATS® historical comparison report for both fighters was calculated from Hopkins’ last 6 fights, and Shumenov’s last 5 fights.

ShoStats_HopkinsShumenov

Shumenov throws and lands above the average for the weight class including landing an average of 42% of his power shots.

Tonight, boxing fans will see a test of experience versus firepower when Bernard Hopkins takes on Beibut Shumenov.

Behind the Numbers of ShoBox: Santana vs. Lundy

02-Lundy-and-Santana-pose-together-IMG_6159_V2Photo: Tom Casino / SHOWTIME

The SHOStats® historical comparison confirms lightweight challenger Hank Lundy (23-3-1, 11 KOs) poses a serious threat to the formerly undefeated Angelo Santana’s chance at redemption.

An examination of the numbers from both fighters’ last 4 fights:
shostats_v1

Hank Lundy not only lands more, he’s more accurate with the shots he lands. With his jab alone, Lundy connects over four times more than Santana.

When both fighters face off on February 21, don’t miss a punch!

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